Beatdown!

Receivers Report Game 5

The stat I saw was that 57% of the Ravens salary cap was on the bench with injury.

Ravens fans like to complain about “coaching” all we want. But Vince Lombardi as head coach, with Bill Walsh on staff as Offensive Coordinator and Bill Belichick on staff as Defensive Coordinator, is not beating a good team with 57% of his salary cap unavailable due to injury. As the old saw goes, sometimes it’s not the Xs and the Os, it’s the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s.

Marcus Spears implied as much Monday on Xitter, when asked why he & Ryan Clark think John Harbaugh deserves to keep his job:

The Ravens without Lamar (plus all the others) have their legs cut off.

I saw some other noise on Xitter along the lines of, yeah but look at the Niners They were greatly injured and they still found a way to beat the Rams. That’s true; but I don’t think it’s comparable. They were missing a lot, but not 57% of their cap. Sure, Brock Purdy is an excellent QB; but his cap number this year is a measly $9 mil. And his backup is a talent that the Niners might actually want to develop and have win the job; not a 31yo caretaker with lesser physical tools.

Which is not to say that our Harbs has done as good a job this season as Kyle Shanahan has. He hasn’t. But Shanahan didn’t have the whole roof cave in, either. Now maybe Harbs & DeCosta could’ve put together a more resilient team over the offseason – the Cooper Rush decision seems particularly weird – but once they got to the opener, Harbs and Shanahan had completely different sets of resources. I don’t think it’s a straight comparison.

Does Harbaugh deserve to keep his job?

Well: no. It’s the NFL. Win or GTFO.

Nobody “deserves” to keep their job. Bill freakin Belichick didn’t deserve to keep his job. Don Shula and Tom Landry couldn’t keep their jobs. It’s just not a thing. Certainly no coach who came into the season as the Super Bowl favorite and is now sitting on 1-4 (and, let’s be real, about to be 1-5) can claim to “deserve” anything.

But as Bill Munny explained to us many years ago, “deserve” has nothing to do with it.

We can rail & rage all we want to about how Sunday’s performance was “unacceptable”. But what’s best for the team?

It feels like a fantasy right now, but this scenario is still very much on the table:

• The Ravens limp to the bye week, then start to get some key players back.

• With Lamar on the field after the bye, they rattle off a bunch of wins against the extremely soft middle part of their schedule.

• They enter December over .500, with two games against (current) division leader Pittsburgh and a real chance to win the division.

That would put them into the….

Okay, thanks Jim Mora, you’re right: I am getting a little ahead of myself. It starts with winning a game. And most likely, that starts after the bye.

Point is, changing to an interim coach would not maximize the team’s chances to realize that scenario.

Harbs has demonstrated over & over that he can “circle the wagons” with the best of ‘em. Inevitably his Ravens will get back to basics, streamline & simplify, and start playing non-clownish football. That should be enough to rack up some wins against teams like the Bears, Dolphins and Jets.

Introducing the staff disruption caused by a change at the top – would that really help the team circle the wagons and get their best result out of this season? Of course not. Right now everyone on staff has their marching orders and knows what they’re focusing on. The right thing to do is let them work.

Whom shall I send?

Also, from a purely practical standpoint, if I throw John Harbaugh out the window, then whom shell I send to the podium? Who would you elevate? If you wanted to name someone on staff to be the interim head coach, I see only three real possibilities:

• Todd Monken

• Chuck Pagano

• Willie Taggart

Two of those potential elevations create new problems.

— Monken seems like a head coach. He exudes temperament and communication. But if you elevate Monken, suddenly that complicates the team’s offensive play-calling. And offense (with Lamar) is the only thing the team has done well this season! Seems like a situation where trying to fix things makes them worse.

— Pagano has served as an NFL head coach for parts of six seasons, with an overall winning record (56-46) and .500 in the postseason. He’s an insanely legit candidate for interim head coach. But currently he serves as the secondary coach, on a squad where that unit is really the team’s only hope on defense. Other than him, who the hell knows what they’re doing on the defensive staff? Do you want to leave Zach Orr unsupervised?

— Taggart has the gravitas. He was a college head coach for 13 seasons across different levels. And moving him would be less disruptive than the other guys. He’s currently serving as the Running Back coach: one imagines someone else could put Derrick Henry thru drills during the week, without crippling the team.

But Taggart has simultaneously the least pro experience of the three and the most ties to the Harbaugh family (played for Jack; coached with all 3 of Jack & John & Jim). Situationally he’d be a weird elevation.

A moot question

The idea of an interim head coach is more of a thought experiment than anything else. Only reactionary owners with impulse control issues and no sense of process fire their head coaches in-season. Steve Bisciotti isn’t going to do that.

In particular, Biscuit isn’t going to fire a head coach in-season who has 186 career wins, 6 division titles, 12 playoff appearances, 4 Conference Championship Game appearances, and a Super Bowl win. That coach gets to walk off with his dignity intact, at the end of a complete season. Biscuit did as much for Brian Billick. He’s not going to do less for Harbs, who is a more successful coach than Billick, and more Bisciotti’s guy than Billick was.

And here’s the thing. Once you realize that there isn’t going to be an in-season coaching move (and shouldn’t be one), then a Harbs decision makes itself.

• If they rattle off nine straight wins after the bye and go on to win the division, then that tells you exactly where Harbs stands.

• If they lie down like dogs against the dregs of the upcoming schedule, then that also tells you everything you need to know about where Harbs stands.

If it’s something between those two extremes, then evaluate accordingly.

Meanwhile the Chiefs just lost to the Jaguars, a perfectly average team (ranked 15th & 16th in Offensive & Defensive DVOA).¹ The Eagles have lost consecutive games to the Broncos and Giants; the Giants game was a decisive loss.

It turns out that good teams with good head coaches occasionally take bad losses. It’s a long season, and a lot happens. This story still has a few more twists & turns to deliver.

Keaton Mitchell did not save the day

Many of us fans have been breathlessly awaiting the return of Keaton Mitchell to the offense – particularly the 2023 Keaton Mitchell, who looked like he might be the next Priest Holmes. We thought it might have been coaching malpractice for Harbaugh to have Mitchell inactive for the first four games

Well, Mitchell finally got off the shelf Sunday. And he did not deliver a jolt of adrenaline to revitalize a flagging offense. Instead he looked like – well, like what he is: a talented player scraping the rust off. He made good-but-not-gamebreaking runs in the Kick Return game, and he had a nice little 5-yd gain on a short pass. Otherwise his 3 rushes for 8 yards didn’t move the needle.

This is a disappointment that might be hiding some encouraging news under the hood.

• The after-image of Mitchell’s incandescent play in 2023 is still burned onto my retinas; it’s disappointing that Mitchell doesn’t (currently) look like that guy anymore. Low-key devastating, to be honest.

But:

• The loudest fans have been taking Mitchell’s handling over the first four weeks as evidence that Harbs is an out-of-touch fuddy duddy who doesn’t know who can play and who can’t. This crystal clear demonstration, of exactly where Mitchell is right now, shows that Harbs was on top of the Mitchell situation. Maybe that means he’s on top of other situations team-wide, as well.

Keaton Mitchell in this take is not so much a player as a referendum on Harbaugh’s judgement. The accuracy of that judgement could be a leading indicator of how likely a Ravens turnaround is this season. We can take Mitchell’s play as evidence that Harbs (still) knows what he’s doing.

Of course, Mitchell is also a player. Harbaugh has always been conservative in handling injury comebacks. But now Mitchell is back on the field and back in the offense! Hopefully over the next several weeks we’ll see more & more from him. That’s what happened in 2023: he dipped his toe in and then started to show more & more.

Not a white flag

Then on Tuesday the Ravens traded Odafe Oweh!!!!

I was shocked. My initial take was that they were probably getting a decent draft pick for him (maybe a 3rd?), and the trade was a clear signaled that the team was surrendering on the season.

Not so fast.

The return was not a draft pick² but a player. This player should let the Ravens play more 2-high Safety shells while also using Kyle Hamilton around the box in the Swiss army knife / chaos agent / Troy Polamalu role. More “Big Nickel” and Dime formations from the Ravens defense.
(Hat tip to Vas on Xitter.)

Rather than a surrender, it’s a re-deployment that they think will increase the competitiveness from their defense. It might work or it might not – the Ravens might be right or wrong – but it’s not a surrender. Related, it’s fascinating how heavy the Ravens have doubled-down (quintupled-down? ten-tupled down?) on their answer to one perennial question.

The chicken-&-egg question on defense is, “What’s more important, coverage or pass rush?”

The Steelers have over the years shown us their organizational answer. They’re always putting resources into their front seven. And the Ravens have shown us their answer: the opposite! Few teams have – my guess is that no team has – invested more resources (draft capital, free agency, trade) in their secondary over the last ~10 years.

This trade is exhibit number ten zillion of their approach. It might be the starkest example yet. Thru 5 weeks (plus one game) this season, the Ravens are bottom 3 in the league in total sacks, and bottom 4 in pressure percentage. So they trade away a pass rusher! To add a safety! That’s breathtaking.

Some inferences:

• One of the drivers for the move has to be frustration, right? Being ready to cut bait with Oweh? They might think Oweh’s part of the equation is addition by subtraction.

• The move obviously frees up a path to more snaps for Mike Green. That must be intentional. The Ravens must have already decided that Green needs to be playing.

• Presumably Alohi Gilman is a good player. (I know nothing about him.)

• Oweh is only 26. Often a trade serves as a kick-in-the-ass for a player. Oweh could react as to a splash of cold water in the face. We could see a whole different player in San Diego LA. He could ball out. That would suck for DeCosta (and Ravens fans); but not really relevant to the goal of saving the Ravens 2025 season.

Also: in previous offseasons we’ve seen DeCosta focus like a laser on a “problem” position group. (Sometimes to his detriment; I think he occasionally shows signs of tunnel vision, focusing on the position group he’s decided is his ““project” for that offseason, and not noticing issues elsewhere on the roster.)

Seems safe to say that “pass rush” will be DeCosta’s position-group focus this next offseason.

Whatever: I’m just glad that the trade is not a white flag. I’m skeptical of how well it will work out (bottom 4 in sacks & pressure and you trade away a pass-rusher??), but I’m glad it’s not a surrender.

Game stats

You know who had a helluva game?

                    QS = game of 3+ catches with 7+ yards-per-target
                    Expl = plays for 20+ yards

Zay Flowers had a helluva game! Caught every damn thing thrown his way, to the tune of 14+ yards-per-target, and racked up a QS and an Explosive.

DeAndre Hopkins continues to do DeAndre Hopkins things. I remain thrilled with how strictly the Ravens coaches are managing his snap count. Check this out:

               Hopkins game-by-game
               game 1  —  18  snaps
               game 2  —  10  snaps
               game 3  —  14 snaps
               game 4  —  18 snaps
               game 5  —  11 snaps
               average —  14.2 snaps

That’s how you manage a 33yo Wide Receiver!

If the Ravens really do put together a post-bye run, and if they can squeeze their way back in to playoff contention, and if they in fact do make the playoffs, and if Hopkins makes a couple big plays in the playoff game(s) –
Then THIS careful management of his load is going to be THE reason why. I really respect the coaching staff on this point; not bowing to the extreme win-now pressure that their start has imposed, and instead sticking with the (utterly necessary!) plan.

Welcome to the chat, Isaiah Likely! Very nice to see you.

Season Stats & Leaderboard

                                                 YpT   = Yards-per-target
                                                 YTS   = Yards-per-target Times SuccessRate
                                                 aYTS = Attempts Times YTS
                                                 QS    = games of 3+ catches with 7+ yards-per-target
                                                 Expl  = plays for 20+ yards

Zay is 8th in the league in receiving yards; 16th in catches; 7th in aYTS.
(The league stats include the week 6 Thursday night game, because I ran the stats late. DeVonta Smith and Wan’Dale Robinson now place ahead of Zay in catches, but maybe they wouldn’t if I had run the stats on time.)

He’s “just” 21st in Yards-per-Target (among qualifiers) and 30th in Success Rate, so his YTS ranks #21.

Hopkins no longer qualifies for the league lead in Yards-per-Target; but his number (and his YTS) are higher than the qualifying league leader.

Lamar still leads the league in Passer Rating and TD%; still 3rd (tie) in TD passes.

Next Up:

Home against the Rams.

I don’t see these Ravens beating the #4-ranked team in DVOA, with the #1 offense and the #11 defense. Honestly, this matchup might look worse than the Texans game

— EXCEPT!

The Rams have no motivation to avenge themselves for the beatdown in that Beyonce game from last Christmas. In fact Sean McVay has a very good relationship with Harbs. So the Rams are likely to take their foot off the gas if they get a sizeable lead in the second half.

I expect the game not to be any more competitive than last week’s; but maybe less embarrassing.

1. Jags fans should be thrilled. An “average” team looks like the 72 Dolphins compared to what the Jags have fielded in recent years.

2. Though there is a late-round pick swap.